Vegas Odds Masvidal Diaz
The BMF (baddest mother f.er) belt is on the line between Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal and Nate Diaz. Masvidal is the -155 favorite to be crowned the UFC’s BMF while Diaz is coming back at +125. UFC 244 Masvidal v Diaz Preview and Odds One of the most highly anticipated cards of the year is finally upon us. The main event will see Nate Diaz take on Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt (google it) live from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on Saturday night.
- Jorge Masvidal vs. Fighter Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2; Jorge Masvidal-160-163: Nate Diaz +130 +143: All odds taken Oct. Jorge Masvidal (34-13) is coming off two very impressive knockouts. After not competing since November 2017, “Gamebred” returned in March of this year and knocked Darren.
- There are even some outrageous prop bets available. More on those in a minute. The betting odds are at the online betting site BetOnline.AG. Let’s get to the Picks and predictions for UFC 244 Diaz vs Masvidal. Early Prelim Quick Picks Hakeem Dawodu (-126) vs Julian Arce (+106) Both men are strikers; Arce is a former Golden Gloves boxer.
On Saturday, November 2nd, the UFC will be live from Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York, for UFC 244: Masvidal vs Diaz. This mega PPV event is loaded with exciting fights from top to bottom. The prelim portion of UFC 244 is better than recent UFC Fight Night events.
UFC 244 is headlined by a welterweight bout between two of the “baddest” and most popular UFC fighters in Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz. The winner of the fight will earn the moniker of “BMF in the game” and a matching gold belt. The co-main event is a middleweight fight between Kelvin Gastelum and Darren Till.
This card is loaded with great matchups from the early prelims like Julio Arce vs Hakeem Dawodu to the second round prelim headliner of Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker. It’s easily one of the best, if not the best card of 2019.
In total, there are 12 fights scheduled for UFC 244. The early prelims are set to begin at 6:45 PM ET on ESPN+ with a 10 PM ET start time for the main card on PPV.
Websites that offer UFC betting have released their odds for the full slate of UFC 244 fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon and examine these current betting lines courtesy of 5Dimes, identify possible betting value or upsets, and KO our picks.
What more could you need!?
Get the PPV ➡️ https://t.co/BzgpbQAAI1#UFC244pic.twitter.com/0f44MHp3Hv
— UFC (@ufc) October 29, 2019
Diaz Vs Masvidal Full
UFC 244 Early Prelims
The early preliminary card features three fights and is set to begin at 6:15 PM ET on ESPN+.
Julio Arce (16-3) vs Hakeem Dawodu (10-1-1)
- Julio Arce (+110)
- Hakeem Dawodu (-130)
Julio Arce is the slight underdog for this contest, but he’s certainly capable of winning. He’s gone 3-1 inside the octagon after earning a contract on DWTNCS 27 months ago. Arce lost to Moraes via split decision last year but has defeated Dan Ige and Daniel Teymur, which are two solid wins.
Arce has held regional gold at two different weight classes and is a skilled striker. Nine of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage. Two of his three losses have come via decision.
Like Arce, Dawodu is also 3-1 inside the octagon. However, his lone loss came via submission in his UFC debut 20 months ago. Since then, he’s won three straight fights including decision victories over Arnett and Bochniak. Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via KO/TKO.
This opening fight could end up being a contender for fight night honors whether it’s knockout of the night or fight of the night. Both men are strikers who look to put their opponents to sleep.
With that said, I do give the edge to Dawodu. He has a vast arsenal of strikes due to his Muay-Thai background. Additionally, Dawodu will have the height, reach and power advantages as well. Both men offer betting value, but Dawodu is the pick here.
Lyman Good (20-5, 1 NC) vs Chance Rencountre (14-3)
- Lyman Good (-130)
- Chance Rencountre (+110)
Chance Rencountre is the slight underdog and on a two-fight winning streak coming into this contest. He lost his UFC debut in June 2018, but has turned things around with strong wins over Kyle Stewart and Ismail Naurdiev.
Rencountre is a grinder with a solid grappling game. He’s also shown that he can take a punch, has good stamina, and can hang with better strikers. Nine of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO.
Lyman Good has had his fair share of adversity. A former Bellator champ, Good made the jump to UFC in 2015 and won his debut fight. However, he missed two years due to failed drug test and has gone 1-2 since returning to the octagon in July 2017.
Good last fought in February and lost via 1st round submission to Demian Maia, who just defeated Ben Askren this past weekend. Thirteen of his 20 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of TKO/KO.
Good will have the striking advantage and power advantage. However, Rencountre has the grappling advantage and might also have the edge in stamina and chin. Good has struggled with grapplers and I believe he will in this fight as well.
Rencountre will close the distance and get this fight on the mat where he will control Good and either find a stoppage victory or grind it out for a decision win. Either way, I’m going with the betting upset.
Katlyn Chookagian (12-2) vs Jennifer Maia (17-5-1)
- Katlyn Chookagian (-160)
- Jennifer Maia (+140)
In another example of just how stacked this UFC 244 card is, these two women are ranked in the Top 5 for the flyweight division and fighting on the early prelims. Essentially, the winner should be next in line to take on Valentin Shevchenko for the UFC women’s flyweight title.
The 5th ranked Jennifer Maia is on a two-fight win streak since losing her octagon debut 16 months ago. At 2-1 in the UFC, Maia had a big win over Roxanne Modafferi in July, which moved her up to the Top 5 in the division.
Katlyn Chookagian is the #1 ranked contender in the women’s flyweight division after defeating the #3 Joann Calderwood five months ago. It was a bounce back win for Chookagian who lost last December to Jessica Eye, which earned Eye the title shot against Shevchenko. Eye lost that fight in June by a scary head kick which knocked her out.
With Eye’s loss, and Chookagian’s last win, a victory this weekend will earn her a shot at gold. 11 of her 14 pro fights have gone the distance. She’s 9-2 in those contests.
Maia was a former Invicta FC champ and has the power advantage here. In all likelihood, Maia will land the more impressive shots. However, Chookagian is five inches taller than Maia and has a four-inch reach advantage as well.
This fight should be closer in the betting lines. I believe the online betting sites have undervalued Maia in this contest. She is worthy of a flier and could pull off the upset. With that said, I’m going with Chookagian to grind out a split decision win. Neither woman will stand a chance against Schevchenko.
UFC 244 Prelims Part 2
The second round of preliminary bouts features four fights and is set to begin at 8 PM ET on ESPN2.
Andrei Arlovski (29-19, 1 NC) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (8-0)
- Andrei Arlovski (+135)
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155)
Every time I see Arlovski on a UFC card, I cringe. I just don’t understand how he’s still fighting. The 40-year-old has lost 10 fights via TKO/KO and has taken a lot of punishment over the years. He has a record of 1-3 and 1 NC in his last five fights. He’s 3-8 and 1 NC in his last 12 pro fights dating back to January 2016.
His UFC career might have been over with this summer, but Arlovski was able to pull off the upset as he defeated Ben Rothwell via unanimous decision. Seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance.
Rozenstruik is an undefeated fighter with a 2-0 record inside the octagon. He defeated Junior Albini in his UFC debut nine months ago and followed that up with a nine-second knockout over Allen Crowder in June. Seven of his eight pro wins have come via TKO/KO.
Rozenstruik will have a slight height and reach advantage. He’s also nine years younger than Arlovski.
Arlovksi has a way of making his opponent in a gun fight become gun shy. In other words, he’s faced knockout artists before and has gone the distance against them. However, I think that streak ends this weekend as Rozenstruik will get the TKO win at some point in this fight.
Sat him down on a jab! @JairRozenstruik#UFC244pic.twitter.com/I2Cyd6TRQP
— UFC (@ufc) October 29, 2019
Edmen Shahbazyan (10-0) vs Brad Tavares (16-5)
- Edmen Shahbazyan (-130)
- Brad Tavares (+110)
Brad Tavares steps in for Krzysztof Jotko on four weeks’ notice. Despite being a late replacement, Tavares is only a small underdog to the undefeated Shahbazyan in a Top 15 middleweight battle. Tavares defeated Jotko in April 2018 via 3rd round TKO.
Following the win over Jotko, the #11 Tavares earned a headlining fight against Israel Adesanya in July 2018 but lost via unanimous decision. He hasn’t fought since then. Ten of his 17 pro wins have come via decision. Thirteen of his 22 pro fights have gone the distance. He’s 10-3 in those contests.
The 13th ranked Shahbazyan earned his contract by winning on DWTNCS in July 2018. He made his UFC debut roughly 11 months ago and has gone 3-0 inside the octagon. Nine of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. Nine victories have come in the 1st round with five of them ending in less than a minute.
At 21 years old, Shahbazyan is still a prospect on the rise. However, he appears to have surpassed Tavares in terms of skillset. I’m taking Shahbazyan to win this fight. Albeit, I’m not sure if it will be via TKO or via decision. Tavares does have two TKO/KO losses on his resume.
Both men offer betting value.
Shane Burgos (12-1) vs Makwan Amirkhani (15-3)
- Shane Burgos (-250)
- Makwan Amirkhani (+210)
This fight has the largest betting disparity on the entire UFC 244 card as Shane Burgos is the biggest favorite and Amirkhani is the biggest underdog according to MMA betting sites.
Vegas Odds Masvidal Diaz Masvidal
Amirkhani joined the UFC in January 2015 and has gone 5-1 since then. However, he’s only fought once a year from 2016 through 2018. This will be the first time he takes two MMA fights in one calendar year since his UFC debut.
Amirkhani last fought five months ago and won via 2nd round submission over Fishgold. That was the 10th submission win of his career. Amirkhani has one mission in mind when steps into the octagon and that’s to take down his opponent and control the fight from the mat. He’s been pretty successful at it so far.
Burgos is ranked 12th in the featherweight division and is on a two-fight win streak. He’s also 5-1 inside the octagon. Nine of his 12 wins have come via stoppage. Burgos last fought in May and defeated Cub Swanson via split decision.
Amirkhani tends to dominate fights from a top control position. Unfortunately, I don’t see that working for him in this fight. Burgos has a strong takedown defense and a full gas tank for three rounds. The biggest advantage for Burgos is in the striking department.
I see Burgos finishing this fight with a TKO as he catches Amirkhani with something that rocks him. From there, Burgos will finish Makwan off and score another UFC victory.
Corey Anderson (12-4) vs Johnny Walker (17-3)
- Corey Anderson (+135)
- Johnny Walker (-155)
The perception is that Jon Jones has cleaned out the light heavyweight division and the weight class needs new stars. Well, this Top 15 fight features the fast-rising star in Johnny Walker whose ranked 11th in the division. He takes on the 7th ranked Corey Anderson in the main event of the prelims, which is another example of this deep fight card.
Corey “Overtime” Anderson is the underdog, but comes into this contest on a three-fight win streak over Cummins, Teixeira and Latifi. Both Texeira and Latifi are Top 15 ranked light heavyweights.
Anderson tends to lean on his stamina and endurance to grind out or outlast his opponents. Nine of his 16 pro fights have gone the distance including his last three bouts. “Overtime” is 8-1 in those contests.
I swore to myself that after his fight against Khalil Rountree 12 months ago, I would not pick against Walker ever again. Well, not until he earns a title shot against Jon Jones. Until then, I believe that Walker has a great chance at winning every fight.
In his three UFC fights, Walker is 3-0 and has won all of them in the 1st round. If you combine the three victories, Walker has a total of 2:50 seconds of octagon time. 16 of his 17 pro wins have been via stoppage with 14 of those bouts by way of TKO/KO.
Will Anderson be able to test Walker truly or will the Brazilian get another big 1st round TKO/KO? For me, I would rather put my money on Walker winning via 1st round TKO than any other outcome. Walker is a star in the making. Let’s just hope he doesn’t hurt himself again in his post-fight celebration.
What did we say about this card LOVING flying knees!?
— UFC (@ufc) October 30, 2019
UFC 244 Main Card
The main card of UFC 244 features five fights and is set to begin at 10 PM ET on PPV. All five matchups feature ranked fighters within their respective divisions.
Kevin Lee (17-5) vs Gregor Gillespie (13-0)
- Kevin Lee (+150)
- Gregor Gillespie (-170)
Masvidal Vs Diaz Vegas Odds
Two Top 11 lightweights will open the PPV portion of UFC 244 in a contest where the winner takes a big step up the divisional ladder. However, these two men are trending in different directions. The #10 Kevin Lee is plummeting while the #11 Gregor Gillespie is on his way up.
Kevin Lee has dropped three of his last four fights including the last two contests where he lost via submission to Rafael dos Anjos and decision to Al Iaquinta. His third loss over that span was to Tony Ferguson. As you can see, two of these losses have been to the cream of the lightweight crop.
Nevertheless, it also shows that Lee might have peaked prior to facing Tony Ferguson two years ago. Since then, his lone win was a doctor stoppage over the tough Edson Barboza.
It should also be pointed out that Lee’s last fight against dos Anjos was at the welterweight division. He decided to come back down to lightweight because he felt there was unfinished business:
“There was too much unfinished business at lightweight to not go back. I didn’t necessarily know it was going to be this fast, to be honest with you. But, once the timing worked out… now was the right time and the last fight I learned a lot. This is huge. This is an incredibly risky fight and I know my back is against the wall. He is undefeated, he has never tasted a loss, and I am coming off two losses.”
Lee is well aware of how dangerous Gillespie is, but he wants to rebuild his brand and to do so Lee will need some impressive wins.
Gillespie is a former Division I NCAA national champion wrestler and is undefeated in his career, which includes a perfect 6-0 record with the UFC. Nicknamed “The Gift,” Gillespie hasn’t fought since January when he won via TKO over Yancy Medeiros.
Eleven of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage, which includes five straight fights. Only two of his contests have gone the distance.
Lee admitted that Gillespie is the best wrestler in this weight class and one of the best in all of the UFC. However, Kevin has a plan to thwart Gregor’s takedowns and to prevent being grounded into the mat. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.
This is exactly what Gillespie needs to establish himself as a legitimate Top 10 fighter in the division. A win over Lee will catapult Gillespie up the weight class where he will be in a big-time fight the next time he steps inside the octagon.
Lee has already showed that he can’t hang with strong grapplers like Rafael dos Anjos and Tony Ferguson or even above average grinders like Al Iaquinta. With that said, I don’t see him being able to prevent takedowns. And, I definitely don’t see Lee being able to withstand the grappling ability of “The Gift.”
It would be great for Gillespie if he can get a stoppage victory, but a dominant unanimous decision win will also boost his stock. Strap the rocket on Gillespie because he’s on his way up to the top of the lightweight division.
Derrick Lewis (21-7, 1 NC) vs Blagoy Ivanov (19-2, 1 NC)
- Derrick Lewis (+105)
- Blagoy Ivanov (-125)
In a battle of Top 10 heavyweights, the #5 Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis takes on 8th ranked Blagoy Ivanov. The winner will most likely be one fight away from a title shot. Additionally, both men suffered their most recent loss at the hands of Junior dos Santos.
For Blagoy, he lost to JDS in July 2018. Since then, Ivanov has won two straight fights via unanimous decision. He defeated Ben Rothwell in March and Tai Tuivasa in June. 12 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage.
After his last fight against Tuivasa, Ivanov wanted to take on Lewis next. He got his wish and now the Bulgarian is feeling confident that he can get his biggest UFC win to date:
“This is the guy I wanted after my last fight against Tai Tuivasa. He is ranked number five and a guy I wanted to fight. My cardio is better, I have been ready for this fight. I see this fight as this. I’m faster than him, cardio is better, my speed and kicks will be a factor. I know I will win this fight.”
Lewis has dropped two straight fights since climbing to the top of the ladder. He lost a title fight to Cormier 12 months ago and then a bout to Junior dos Santos in March. Prior to these bouts, Lewis had won three straight fights, including a bout against Francis Ngannou.
Eighteen of his 21 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He will have a four-inch height, six-inch reach, and at least 10 pounds advantage over Ivanov.
Ivanov is similar to Lewis in fighting styles. He has some wrestling skills but doesn’t really use them. Instead, he tries to get into striking physical battles. That’s bad news for him in this fight. Lewis is the bigger, stronger fighter and he has more knockout power.
Ivanov’s best chance at winning is on the mat, but I don’t see it happening. Lewis is going to catch Ivanov with something that will put him in a daze and end the fight. Both men offer betting value, but I’m going with the slight underdog in Lewis.
Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) vs Vicente Luque (17-6-1)
- Stephen Thompson (-130)
- Vicente Luque (+110)
This welterweight clash features the #14 ranked Vicente Luque who’s on mission to prove he’s one of the best in the weight class taking on the 8th ranked Stephen Thompson who’s still one of the top fighters at 170 pounds.
Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque is on six-fight win streak that has included wins over Mike Perry and Bryan Barberena to name a few. Luque doesn’t just come into the octagon and fight, he goes to war with his opponents. Fifteen of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO.
Luque is a pressure fighter who will press forward all fight long and try to smother Thompson. Vicente recognizes that Thompson is a big name in the Top 10 and he’s out to add another reputable foe to his resume. With that in mind, Luque shares some details about this matchup:
“I think it’s a good match-up for me on the feet. I put pressure on my opponents. He likes to move a lot, and if I can stop that movement, I believe I can put pressure on him. The ground game is always a weapon I have, though. I haven’t used that in my last fights, but that doesn’t mean I don’t want to use it. I do, and I will use that when I have a chance. Using takedowns and my ground game is a possibility I might work on in this fight.”
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is on a two-fight losing streak after dropping contests against Darren Till and Anthony Pettis. He’s 1-3-1 in his last five fights. However, that lone win was via unanimous decision over Jorge Masvidal.
His draw was in the first fight against Tyron Woodley. Thompson lost the rematch via majority decision. Both Till and Masvidal are on this card. Anthony Pettis just dropped a fight to Nate Diaz in August. This welterweight division has had many fighters move up and down the rankings.
With that said, the winner of this fight will firmly entrench himself in the Top 10. In Thompson’s case, he could end up moving back into the Top 5 sooner than later. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening because I’m going with Luque in this one.
I have been very impressed with Luque over the last two years. He’s stepped up his game and has been a warrior inside that cage. I expect Luque to put the pressure on and either land some big shots or set up Wonderboy for a takedown.
I think fans and critics are overlooking the fact that Luque can win this fight on the mat or standing up. I see him winning more rounds than Thompson and possibly getting the stoppage. Either way, I’m going with the betting upset in this fight.
Darren Till (17-2-1) vs Kelvin Gastelum (16-4, 1 NC)
- Darren Till (+175)
- Kelvin Gastelum (-210)
When we last saw Darren Till, he was knocked out by Jorge Masvidal in March. It was his second straight loss as he also suffered a submission defeat to Tyron Woodley 14 months ago. After those two losses, Till fell down to 10th in the welterweight division.
Instead of working his way back up the ladder, Till decided to make a move to the middleweight division. He grew tired of the challenges to cut down to welterweight and feels that middleweight is a more natural fit for him. 10 of his 17 pro wins have come via TKO/KO.
Kelvin Gastelum might be ranked 4th in the middleweight division, but he could possibly move right back in line to rematch the middleweight champ Israel Adesanya in February. These two men had a fight of the year in April that saw Adesanya win via unanimous decision. Israel would then defeat Whittaker in October to become the undisputed champ.
With a win over Till, Gastelum could get a rematch because the #1 challenger Paulo Costa suffered an injury and will be out up to eight months. Romero and Whittaker, both ranked above Gastelum, won’t be chosen due to Romero losing to Costa and Whittaker losing to Adesanya.
With that in mind, Gastelum is out to destroy anyone in his way and that includes Till. Not only does he believe he will win, but he’s predicting a 1st round knockout:
“I’m predicting a first-round knockout. I feel very confident in my skills and preparation. After having gone through a war, you only level up and I feel like I have leveled up and man, it’s going to be very hard to beat me.”
I’m not sure if Gastelum will get the 1st round KO, but I do believe he will win this fight. He’s too much for Till to handle right now. The UFC hasn’t done Darren Till any favors with this booking. He should’ve faced someone a bit lower on the totem pole.
Nevertheless, Gastelum is going to get the stoppage win in this fight. Probably in the 2nd round. He will then be in a position to challenge Adesanya again.
Jorge Masvidal (34-13) vs Nate Diaz (20-11)
- Jorge Masvidal (-160)
- Nate Diaz (+140)
Here’s a fight that needs no introduction. It’s a battle between two “BMF’s in the game” and both ranked in the Top 7.
Nate Diaz is the underdog and ranked 7th in the welterweight division. He returned from a three-year hiatus to defeat Anthony Pettis. Following the win, he called out Jorge Masvidal which was quickly accepted. The fans and media jumped all over this fight and the UFC is even make a BMF championship belt for the contest.
Diaz is one of the most unpredictable fighters on the mic, but pretty straight forward in the octagon. Diaz has a strong striking background and a solid grappling game. Furthermore, he’s shown impressive cardio and a willingness to fight. He’s won three of his last four bouts. The lone loss was in his rematch with Conor McGregor.
For Jorge Masvidal, he’s won two straight fights and five of his last seven. Masvidal has taken on every top welterweight in the UFC and continues to prove he’s one of the baddest men in the octagon. Nicknamed “Gamebred,” Masvidal won his last two fights via impressive knockouts.
Eight months ago he KO’d Till, and four months ago he scored the fasted knockout in UFC history over Ben Askren. That five-second KO put Masvidal in the spotlight and at the top of Diaz’s wish list.
Sixteen of Diaz’s 20 pro wins have come via stoppage with 11 by way of submission. Seventeen of Masvidal’s 34 wins have come via stoppage with 15 by way of KO/TKO. Diaz will have a two-inch reach and height advantage.
I believe Diaz will have the advantage on the mat, while Masvidal has the striking advantage with his knockout power. Wherever this fight ends up the longest, will determine the outcome.
With such a close fight on paper, the next step is to look at the betting odds. Masvidal is a sizable favorite at -160 odds while Diaz is a juicy underdog at +140 odds. The value is clearly with Nate Diaz and I believe he will win this fight.
I expect Diaz to withstand the upright exchanges to get the fight to the mat where he can try to find a submission hold. If not, then he can control the action for the majority of the rounds while on top of Masvidal. That would give him the edge with the judges. I’m taking Diaz to pull off the betting upset.
BMF advisory in the NYC area. #UFC244pic.twitter.com/bog9Rb3f9y
— UFC (@ufc) October 28, 2019
Diaz vs Masvidal Prop Bets
With a fight of this magnitude, UFC betting sites have numerous prop bets to choose from. The following are a few of the best UFC prop bets for the Diaz vs Masvidal fight:
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes (-150)
- No (+110)
5Dimes offers this prop bet where bettors can wager on whether or not this fight will go the distance. In Masvidal’s 47 professional fights, he’s gone the distance in 27 of them with a record of 17-10. For Diaz, he’s gone the distance in 13 of his 31 pro fights with a record of 4-9.
That’s 40 combined fights where these octagon warriors have gone the full distance. I believe it will happen in this contest as well. The “No” option has value, but the smart play is on the “Yes.”
Will the Fight End in a Draw?
- Yes (+7000)
- No (-18500)
SportBet asks those wanting to place a UFC bet if they think this fight will end in a Draw. Neither man has ever fought to a Draw before. However, with how close this fight is, and the absurd amount of money it could make in a rematch, I wouldn’t laugh this idea off.
At +7000 odds, there’s certainly appeal for taking a small flier on this wager. A $10 wager could earn you a $700 return if the fight goes to a Draw. You can either eat another basket of fries while watching the fights or you can wager that amount on a Draw.
The “No” option offers no value, but the “Yes” option is worth a shot for those who see the risk versus reward with this prop bet.
UFC 244 Betting Value
The following MMA fighters offer solid betting value based on their current UFC 244 odds, matchups and career success:
- Hakeem Dawodu (-130) will take on Julio Arce (+110) in the opening fight of UFC 244. It has the potential for fireworks since both men are strikers at heart. With that said, I give the advantage to Dawodu, but they both offer betting value.
- Chance Rencountre (+110) is the slight underdog in his fight against Lyman Good (-130). However, I expect Rencountre to use his grappling advantages and grind out a “good” win on Saturday.
- Edmen Shahbazyan (-130) battles veteran Brad Tavares (+110) in another solid early prelim matchup. Both men offer betting value, but I feel that Edmen has a better all-around fight game and will defeat Tavares.
- Derrick Lewis (+105) takes on Blagoy Ivanov (-125) in a Top 8 heavyweight battle. Both men offer betting value, but I like Lewis in this fight. He’s the bigger fighter, with a height and reach advantage, and has the knockout power to end it in one punch.
- Vicente Luque (+110) vs Stephen Thompson (-130) is going to be an exciting welterweight battle. Both men offer betting value and they both love to strike. We could see some big-time fireworks in this one. I’m going with “The Silent Assassin” to silence his critics with a win over Thompson.
- Nate Diaz(+140) vs Jorge Masvidal (-160) is one of the most exciting main events we’ve had all year long. It’s so great that the UFC made a belt just for this fight. I like Diaz to pull off the betting upset and edge out Masvidal with the judges.
Only one way to find out #UFC244 (via @FirstTake) pic.twitter.com/mXlbVG2U2J
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 29, 2019
Final Thoughts on UFC 244
This is one of the deepest fight cards I’ve ever seen. And it’s arguably the best card over the last few years. From the early prelims to the main event, UFC 244 is stacked with great matchups and exciting fights. I’m pumped for at least 10 of the 12 fights scheduled.
Obviously, the main event is where a great deal of attention is being paid. However, don’t sleep on the rest of the main card as all of the other fights are between ranked combatants. The entire prelim card is as good as or better than many of the UFC Fight Night events.
The betting action is almost as exciting as the lineup for UFC 244. There are numerous fights with close betting odds and several potential upsets. The cherry on the top of this UFC betting sundae are the plethora of available prop bets.
In the end, this is one UFC PPV event that you don’t want to miss. Let’s see who walks out of MSG as the “baddest mother fu***r,”claims the BMF championship belt, and shoots to the top of the UFC charts. Both men claim to be the BMF of UFC, we’ll see which one can back it up.
UFC 244 Betting Recap
- Hakeem Dawodu (-130)
- Chance Rencountre (+110)
- Katlyn Chookagian (-160)
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155)
- Edmen Shahbazyan (-130)
- Shane Burgos (-250)
- Johnny Walker (-155)
- Gregor Gillespie (-170)
- Derrick Lewis (+105)
- Vicente Luque (+110)
- Kelvin Gastelum (-210)
- Nate Diaz (+140)
On November 2, fans will finally get to see two great warriors enter the octagon to square off.
It’s not like we haven’t seen other great warriors enter the eight-sided ring before, but this fight is special. Both are veterans who respect each other as elite. And more importantly, neither of these MMA stars understand the word quit.
The early odds at top sportsbooks opened with Jorge Masvidal as high as -245 and are now hovering with Masvidal at around a -175 favorite. As we get closer to fight night, we’ll probably see this line go down a little further. If you are a bettor and you like Nate Diaz, you should probably jump on the line now, while you can still get him at +155. If you Like Jorge Masvidal, you might want to wait a bit and see if you can’t get a little more return on your money.
What Do the Early Lines Mean?
So, how seriously should we take these lines? Masvidal opened at -245 which would put him as the moderate favorite to win. Now that the line has dipped to -175, we could call him a slight favorite – at least in the world of Boxing and MMA. But, this dip is artificial, essentially, public action moved the line, not the handicappers. So should we be expecting Masvidal to win in a dominant fashion?
Well, that depends. This is the UFC and the end of the fight is always just one punch, kick, knee, or choke away. These are two Bad Emmer Effers, so, despite Masvidal being an odds favorite in Vegas, I don’t see him easily putting away Nate Diaz. After all, the UFC promptly trademarked Diaz’s statement about defending his ‘baddest motherf*#$er in the game belt’
The UFC has filed 3 trademark applications for ‘BADDEST MOTHERFUCKER.’ @ufc claims the phrase will be used for:
1. The name of an event
2. A championship belt
3. A brand of toys (?!)
A Supreme Court ruling from June makes registering such a ‘scandalous’ phrase possible.👇#UFCpic.twitter.com/N8m62R4lz0
— Josh Gerben (@JoshGerben) September 17, 2019
Matchup Breakdown
Diaz is a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. So he has a definitive advantage on the ground. That said, Masvidal’s takedown defense is superb, so Diaz will have difficulties getting Jorge down to the mat. He may end up getting quite a few of his takedown attempts stuffed. Both are excellent strikers. Diaz manages distance well and throws punches in volume. He has a knack for herding his opponents into his power hand. That said, he doesn’t usually punch for power. Masvidal, on the other hand, has more knockout power. But both of these fighters are tough as nails with iron chins, so I don’t envision either knocking the other out … not that it couldn’t happen, I just think it unlikely.
Prediction: if Nate Diaz wins, it will most likely be by submission. If he gets Jorge down to the mat and can keep him there long enough, he could put Masvidal in a tough situation. If Masvidal wins, it will most likely be by decision. He can gain the judges’ favor by stuffing Diaz’s takedown attempts and landing impressive power shots throughout the fight.